Sunday, 3:00 PM EST, Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, Massachusetts
Fans on both sides have one date in mind heading into this AFC Championship matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and New England Patriots – January 10, 2010.
It’s not just because that was the last time these two teams met in the postseason, but also because of the way things went down. On the first play from scrimmage, just 17 seconds into the game, then second-year Ravens running back Ray Rice exploded for an 80-yard touchdown. By the end of the first quarter, the Ravens had a 24-point lead, and they wouldn’t let it slip en route to a 33-14 blowout win.
Now the memory has been refreshed for players on both sidelines, especially those who were there.
First, there’s Tom Brady. The 2010 Ravens defense was the most successful against Brady in the postseason in his 12-year hall-of-fame career. In addition to three sacks, one of which forced a costly fumble out of Brady’s hands, the Ravens picked him three times and held him to just 154 yards on 23 of 42 passing. Not even the 2007-08 New York Giants, who limited the Patriots’ record-setting offense to 14 points en route to an upset Super Bowl victory, can say they limited Brady that well.
The Ravens defense was so successful because of the formula it drew up to keep Brady’s explosive offensive potential at bay. Basically, by forcing turnovers or three-and-outs on defense and pounding the ball on the ground to run the clock on offense, they kept Brady out of the game. It’s a term that’s been well overused by broadcasters calling Patriots games: Brady can’t score if he doesn’t get any time with the ball. The Ravens were successful here, edging out New England in time of possession by more than five minutes and holding them to just 196 total offensive yards.
Ever since that wild card playoff game against the Ravens, the Patriots have seen plenty of teams try to replicate that approach. However, if Baltimore also tries to go into this game with that plan, it will run into two problems.
The first is that the approach so many other teams have attempted against New England this year hasn’t been successful. In the last two weeks of the regular season, the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins both tried to get out ahead of New England and burn the clock. Each jumped out to a 21-0 lead in the first quarter, only to watch Brady and his new-look, two-tight-end offense erase it. There are a lot of reasons Bill Belichick is considered the best coach in the NFL. Adapting to these kinds of challenges is just one of them.
The second problem is that the Ravens are not the same team this year as they were in the 2010 playoffs. In the 2009 regular season, Baltimore recorded 22 interceptions. This year, they only had 15. Seeing as the four turnovers were a pretty big reason Brady’s offense was kept off the field in 2009, that difference is a sign that it won’t come as easily as it did back then, especially with future hall-of-fame safety Ed Reed struggling through a severe ankle sprain.
On the other side, though, the Ravens have plenty of opportunities to beat the Patriots in new ways. Rice, whose 159-yard, two-touchdown performance in that 2010 wild card game put him on the map as an elite running back, may not even be the most important factor on Baltimore’s offense.
Quarterback Joe Flacco has been all over the news this week after Reed publicly criticized his shaky performance against the Houston Texans last week. The kind of inconsistency he showed in that wild card playoff game has been an issue for him all season, though. While he’s had his poor outings, such as 137 yards against the Jacksonville Jaguars and 132 against the Cleveland Browns, Flacco has shown flashes of potential throughout the season. This ranges from easy matchups against the St. Louis Rams (completing 27 of 48 pass attempts for 389 yards) and the Arizona Cardinals (31 of 51 for 336) to the league’s top defenses in the Pittsburgh Steelers (28 of 47 for 300 yards) and Houston Texans (20 of 33 for 305 yards).
For all the criticisms of the Patriots defense (and there are plenty) they’ve only actually been really weak against the pass. They’re ranked second-to-last in opposing passing yards, giving up an average of 293.9 yards per game, but 17th in opposing rushing yards, giving up an average of just 117.9 per game. They limited Philadelphia Eagles running back LeSean McCoy to just 31 yards on 10 carries and Oakland Raiders running back Darren McFadden to just 75 yards on 14 carries. And if Brady’s offense can get off to as hot a start as they did last week against the Denver Broncos, the Ravens might not be in a position to run the ball often. Playing catch up with New England means passing the ball.
For this one, the deciding factor will be which Joe Flacco shows up in Foxboro on Sunday.
— Colin Neagle (@colinneagle)