If Pete Crow-Armstrong wasn’t already holding the inside track for National League MVP, the Chicago Cubs center fielder may have put both hands on the trophy Saturday afternoon at Wrigley Field.
Crow-Armstrong blasted three home runs, collected four hits and drove in six as the Cubs hammered the Cincinnati Reds 17-5, producing the type of late-August performance that tends to stick in the minds of MVP voters.
PCA homered in the first, second and seventh innings, giving him the first three-homer game of his career and pushing his season total to 36. He came to the plate again in the eighth with an opportunity to make history against Reds catcher José Trevino, who had taken the mound in the blowout, but grounded out on a 58.1 mph knuckleball.
Crow-Armstrong became the first Cub with at least four hits, three homers and six RBI in a game at Wrigley Field since George Mitterwald did it in 1974.
That’s the box score.
The analytics tell us why Saturday may have mattered considerably more.
Crow-Armstrong entered the weekend leading Major League Baseball in WAR, and FanGraphs had him at 9.1 WAR entering Saturday, compared with 6.9 for Los Angeles Dodgers superstar Shohei Ohtani. Different WAR models calculate value differently, but when the separation starts approaching two full wins before September, that’s no longer statistical noise. That’s a legitimate gap.
PCA is now slashing .282/.377/.567 with a .944 OPS, 36 home runs, 89 RBI, 32 stolen bases and 71 walks. He’s also sitting near the top of baseball with a 158 wRC+, meaning his offensive production has been roughly 58 percent better than league average after adjusting for league and ballpark.
And that’s before we get to his glove.
Crow-Armstrong has been one of the premier defensive players in baseball, not simply one of its best defensive center fielders. He ranks among MLB’s leaders with 23 Outs Above Average while also leading in Fielding Run Value. Put that next to 32 stolen bases, elite center-field range and middle-of-the-order production and you begin to understand why WAR loves him.
This isn’t a one-dimensional 36-homer season.
PCA is creating value in virtually every way a position player can create it.
His underlying contact metrics provide another interesting layer. Statcast has Crow-Armstrong at a 90.1 mph average exit velocity with a 48.5 percent hard-hit rate and 12.2 percent barrel rate. His .393 wOBA significantly exceeds his .358 expected wOBA, suggesting there has been some overperformance relative to quality of contact. But that’s where evaluating the entire player matters. Even if some offensive regression comes, the defense and baserunning don’t disappear.
Then there is August.
Crow-Armstrong has joined Ryne Sandberg in 1990, Eric Davis in 1987 and Bobby Bonds in 1977 as the only players over the last 50 years to produce at least 12 homers, 25 RBI and six stolen bases in a calendar month.
For those who know baseball history, that’s an interesting group.
Sandberg was one of the greatest all-around second basemen ever. Davis at his peak combined power, speed and center-field defense at a level very few players could touch. Bobby Bonds was putting together 30-30 seasons before that combination became fashionable.
That’s the company PCA’s skill set is beginning to keep.
But What About Ohtani?
This is where the MVP conversation gets complicated.
Shohei Ohtani has essentially broken the traditional framework for evaluating baseball players because we’re discussing someone capable of being an elite hitter and front-line starting pitcher at the same time.
Ohtani entered Saturday hitting .283 with a .383 on-base percentage and .535 slugging percentage. He has 30 homers and 80 RBI, and even in what qualifies as a slight offensive step backward by his ridiculous standards, a .918 OPS is still superstar production.
On the mound, Ohtani was even more impressive before injuries interrupted his season: 8-2 with a 1.79 ERA and 95 strikeouts across 85 2/3 innings.
That’s where this MVP race needs some context.
If Ohtani had continued taking the baseball every fifth or sixth day while maintaining this level of offense, we’d probably be having a different conversation. An MVP candidate giving you middle-of-the-order production and ace-caliber innings creates value that almost no other player can replicate.
But MVP isn’t awarded for hypothetical innings.
Ohtani hasn’t pitched since July 3 because of left knee irritation and a right biceps issue, and Dodgers manager Dave Roberts acknowledged this weekend that Ohtani still isn’t 100 percent. Los Angeles hasn’t committed to when—or even whether—he will return to the rotation during the regular season.
That’s important.
His 1.79 ERA is phenomenal. But it came across 85 2/3 innings.
Meanwhile, Crow-Armstrong has been accumulating value almost every night in center field.
This is where the old-school baseball eye and the new-school metrics actually agree.
Watch PCA and you see the range, first-step quickness, arm, power and aggression on the bases. Open the analytical page and WAR, wRC+, Outs Above Average and Fielding Run Value tell essentially the same story.
Ohtani remains the greatest two-way talent of this generation, and perhaps the most uniquely constructed baseball player we’ve ever seen. But the 2026 MVP isn’t a lifetime achievement award, and it isn’t a referendum on who we’d rather build a franchise around.
It’s about who has produced the most value this season.
Right now, that’s Crow-Armstrong.
The Cubs center fielder has another advantage that shouldn’t be ignored: positional scarcity. Ohtani’s current value is primarily coming as a designated hitter while he’s unable to pitch. Crow-Armstrong is playing a premium defensive position at an elite level while simultaneously producing like one of the best hitters in the National League.
That combination is difficult to beat.
And Saturday wasn’t simply stat-padding against Cincinnati. The Cubs remain in the postseason race, holding the NL’s top Wild Card position while still chasing Milwaukee in the Central. Every win matters, and PCA just put six runs on his own RBI ledger in a game Chicago desperately needed after a three-game losing streak.
So, did Pete Crow-Armstrong officially lock up the National League MVP on August 29?
No serious baseball person should call an MVP race over with a month remaining. Ohtani is still Ohtani, and baseball has a funny way of changing narratives in four weeks.
But the math is becoming difficult to argue with.
Ohtani has the name, the history and the unprecedented two-way résumé.
Crow-Armstrong currently has the larger total-value season.
And after three baseballs disappeared into the Wrigley Field seats Saturday, the gap between those two arguments became considerably wider.