Joe Budden is looking beyond Drake’s courtroom fight with Universal Music Group and asking a much bigger question: What happens to the music business if one of its most valuable superstars decides he no longer needs the machine?
During a discussion about Drake’s future, Budden argued that the rapper’s catalog and commercial dominance may carry considerably more weight inside the industry than fans realize. In his view, Drake going fully independent would send shockwaves through a system that has benefited from his run for well over a decade.
“I don’t know how many labels and artist careers are being backed off the fruits of Drake’s labor right now and I think it’s a lot… We’ve seen it. If Drake goes independent… OMG forget about it, because who’s the next DRAKE”
Budden also suggested that some of the enormous power associated with UMG and its chairman and CEO Lucian Grainge has been strengthened by having Drake’s music under the company’s umbrella.
That conversation arrives while Drake and UMG remain opponents in federal court.
Drake is currently asking the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit to revive his defamation lawsuit over UMG’s promotion and distribution of Kendrick Lamar’s “Not Like Us.” Judge Jeannette Vargas dismissed the case in October 2025, finding that the disputed lyrics, viewed within the context of a highly public rap battle, amounted to nonactionable opinion.
Drake appealed in January with a 117-page brief challenging that reasoning. UMG fired back in March with an 83-page response calling his position “nonsensical” and “astoundingly hypocritical.”
The appeal has since drawn outside legal voices, including Yale Law School’s Media Freedom & Information Access Clinic, which filed an amicus brief supporting the dismissal.
The Second Circuit has yet to rule.
For Budden, though, the bigger industry story could eventually happen outside the courtroom. If Drake takes complete control of his next chapter independently, the question becomes exactly what Budden asked: Who is the next Drake?